XAUUSD US Session Forecast June 04: Gold Holds $4,495 – Bulls Eye $4,535
Gold started the American session with a bang, surging past the $4,500 barrier to hit an intra‑day high of $4,515 before a wave of profit‑taking dragged the metal back to $4,495. For traders watching the XAUUSD US session forecast June 04, this pullback is less a breakdown and more a classic retest of a freshly broken level. The earlier rally was fueled by a softer US Dollar, but with non‑farm payrolls just over 20 hours away, the market is quick to book gains. Those who rode the momentum from the $4,425 low are now in a perfect spot. Our AI Trading Bot already moved its stop loss to breakeven at $4,501.50 and extended the take‑profit target to $4,535, turning a hot trade into a risk‑free opportunity.
Gold Market Overview
The North American open saw the US Dollar under broad pressure against the euro, yen, and pound, yet gold failed to hold its best levels. The catalyst was the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire and renewed hopes of a US‑Iran deal, which lifted risk appetite and reduced the safe‑haven bid that had initially supported gold. Instead, the metal is now riding on pure dollar weakness and technical momentum. The Dow and S&P 500 are hovering near flat, leaving XAU/USD to trade in a $20 range between $4,490 and $4,515. This kind of consolidation ahead of a major event like tomorrow’s NFP is textbook. It gives bulls a chance to reload without threatening the broader uptrend that began from the $4,425 floor.
Technical Analysis
The latest data from our TradingView webhook paints a nuanced picture. Price sits at $4,495.62, just a whisker below the 200‑hour EMA at $4,497.94. The 20‑ and 50‑EMAs (at $4,473.86 and $4,474.21 respectively) are flat and almost intertwined—neither confirming a bullish cross nor a breakdown. The RSI at 59.41 is safely in neutral territory, while the MACD line at 7.85 well above the signal line at 2.39 suggests underlying buying pressure hasn’t evaporated. With an ATR of 19.05, intra‑day swings of $15–$20 are normal, so the dip from $4,515 to $4,495 fits within a single bar’s range.
Key levels from the webhook show first support at $4,447.55 and secondary support at $4,366.29. On the upside, resistance awaits at $4,541.57 and $4,595.00. The hourly chart, visible on our platform, indicates that as long as the $4,490–$4,500 support band holds, the bullish structure remains intact. A break above $4,510 would confirm that today’s high was merely a liquidity grab, opening the door to $4,535 and eventually $4,541.57. Conversely, a close below the EMA cluster near $4,474 would tilt the bias back toward the bears.
Fundamental Drivers
The single biggest driver this afternoon is the US Dollar’s retreat. The greenback lost ground against the EUR, JPY, and GBP right at the NY open, a reaction to the easing of Middle East tensions. A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, coupled with a US‑brokered Iran deal, diminished the need for haven assets, which paradoxically helped gold earlier by pressuring the dollar. Later, profit‑taking emerged as traders squared positions ahead of tomorrow’s high‑impact NFP, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rate. With no other tier‑one US data left today, the market will likely drift in a $20‑$25 range, giving skilled traders an edge on both sides.
Devil’s Advocate
What could wreck the bullish case? A sudden hawkish headline from a Fed speaker or a stronger‑than‑expected ISM services reading (if leaked) could spark a dollar rally. Gold would then slice through the $4,490 support and quickly test the 20/50 EMA confluence around $4,474. A breakdown there would open a direct path to $4,447.55. Another risk is that the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire triggers a sustained “risk on” mood that kills gold’s safe‑haven premium entirely. However, the News Trading Bot is built exactly for such surprise events, so automated traders can sleep easy knowing the bot will react in milliseconds.
Trading Strategy for This Session
I’m watching two scenarios. First, a bullish re‑entry above $4,510 after a clean 60‑minute candle close. The ideal target would be $4,535, then $4,541.57. A tight stop at $4,498 keeps the risk‑reward ratio above 1:2. The Price Action Pro EA excels at catching these exact breakout patterns on XAUUSD. The second scenario is a short below $4,490, targeting $4,474 and possibly $4,447.55, with a stop above $4,510. Given the proximity to non‑farm payrolls, I favour reducing position sizes. Our AI Trading Bot is already in a risk‑free long, so manual traders can afford to sit on their hands and wait for a clear signal.
Risk Management
With an ATR of 19.05, a stop of 12–15 points is too tight; I recommend a minimum 20‑point buffer. That means adjusting lot sizes to match a risk of 1% per trade. For example, if your account is $10,000, risking $100 on a 20‑point stop requires a position of 0.05 lots. Multiple Gold trading EAs can auto‑calculate these figures, but for manual traders, a quick spreadsheet saves the account. If the AI Bot’s breakeven stop at $4,501.50 gets hit, the trade ends flat—no loss, no gain. That’s the kind of discipline every trader should aim for.
FAQ
What’s next for gold after the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire?
Initially, the ceasefire eased safe‑haven demand and pressured gold, but a weaker US Dollar quickly reversed the slide. Now the focus turns to Friday’s non‑farm payrolls, which will dictate the next $30 move. Until then, gold is likely to oscillate between $4,490 and $4,515.
Is $4,500 a key level for XAUUSD?
Absolutely. The round number coincides with the 200‑hour EMA ($4,497.94) and the earlier breakout point. A sustained hold above $4,500 signals that buyers are in control, whereas a rejection here invites a drop back to $4,474.
What’s the AI Trading Bot doing with the long position?
Our AI bot entered a long at $4,501.36 earlier today. With price now above that level, it moved the stop loss to breakeven ($4,501.50) and extended the take‑profit target to $4,535. This locks in a risk‑free trade while allowing the bot to capture further upside if momentum picks up.
Will NFP data tomorrow move gold?
Yes, dramatically. The forecast stands at 85K new jobs (vs 115K prior) and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Any surprise in either direction can whip XAUUSD by $30–$40 in seconds. Automated strategies like our News Trading Bot are indispensable for such events.
Conclusion
As the US session unfolds, gold is parked at $4,495, having shaken out early buyers but holding above the critical $4,490 demand zone. The bias remains bullish above $4,500, but price needs to reclaim $4,510 to really ignite. With NFP looming and the dollar on the back foot, bulls have a clear edge. The AI Trading Bot’s breakeven stop and extended $4,535 target perfectly capture that potential. While no one can predict the exact tick, the blueprint for the next leg higher is on the chart. Stay disciplined, size down, and let the market show its hand before committing.
Trading Gold (XAU/USD) involves significant risk of loss. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
