Fundamental View

OPEC and its allies meet next in Vienna on April 17-18 and delegates say another gathering is scheduled for June 25-26.

On Jan. 1, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies began new production cuts to avoid a supply glut that could soften prices. OPEC, Russia and other non-members — the OPEC+ alliance — agreed to reduce supply by 1.2 million barrel per day for six months. As a result oil hit four months high $64.68/barrel.

The United States has imposed sanctions against Venezuelan and Iran. This is also cause of high oil price.

Market is expecting to cut oil supply again. So fundamentally oil has still room to go up if Saudi doesn’t increase their oil supply. Before OPEC next meet in Vienna on April 17-18 oil may go for some minor correction. But for now fundamentally oil is in good position.

Technical View

Technically oil is in over bought territory. In the daily chart RSI showing over 70 level. STO. Also showing over bought level. Right now market is at fibo 61.8% retracement level. So before OPEC meeting we can expect some minor correction at least. If Saudi increase oil supply then a big drop may occur. We can see oil 50/54 Dollar/barrel again. Otherwise market may test 66 t0 70 Dollar/barrel again.  


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